The Agile Coaches Report · Volume 01 · 2026

Agile estimation: from prediction to alignment

What more than 30 Agile coaches said about the conversations behind estimates, the risk of comparing velocity, and keeping the reasoning with the work.

Read the report online or download the PDF.

Key findings: the number matters less when the team has not shared the reasoning

Four themes from Quely's interviews show where estimation helps, and where it can mislead.

  1. Disagreement reveals what the team does not know. Different estimates expose different assumptions about the work. Coaches valued the discussion that follows, not only the final point value. Report, pp. 4-6.
  2. A point needs a shared meaning. Some teams estimate complexity and uncertainty. Others use points as a time proxy. Trouble starts when a team moves between those models without saying so. Report, pp. 8-10.
  3. Velocity is not a contest between teams. Coaches described how cross-team targets can encourage inflated estimates. A team can use its own trend to discuss planning and change. Report, pp. 12-14.
  4. Async and AI still need a human decision. Some coaches collect estimates before a short live discussion of outliers. AI can surface questions and reference points, but the team chooses the estimate. Report, pp. 16-18.

“Once velocity becomes a KPI, estimation stops being honest.”

Coach 9, The Agile Coaches Report, p. 12

How we made the report

Quely interviewed more than 30 Agile coaches in 2025-2026 across distributed and co-located teams worldwide. Several coaches asked to remain anonymous, so the report identifies interviewees by number. Its quotes illustrate recurring themes.

Keep the reasoning connected to the work

A planning conversation can reveal an assumption or open question. Keep the work and relevant discussion in a Space. Ask Orbit about that context, then use a Lens to review what needs attention. Your team decides the estimate.

  • Bring active work and its planning context into a Space.
  • Ask Orbit what remains unclear before the team commits.
  • Use Lenses to review decisions and questions. The team makes the call.

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